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NFL Week 11 odds picks best bets Chiefs win Super Bowl rematch over Eagles Dolphins roll over Raide |
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| ymakerpi8d | |||
Joined: March 13, 2024
Posts: 292
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I had a 3-1-1 week on my best bets. So close to a perfect 5-0 week, except the gave up a miracle touchdown to the with 52 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter, and the defense had a tough time stopping anything. Yes, Dan Campbell's offense looks elite, but why are we ignoring how the defense continues to give up huge plays?I will always be honest with you in this column. This week is gro s. There are several huge numbers that are surprising, but at the same time, you'll find yourself hesitant to take the dog. At least we have a great start to the week with the and on Thursday night, and then a rematch on Monday night with the and .Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.Top five picks ATS record: 22-25-3Overall ATS record: 63-82-5Straight Randy Jones Jersey up record: 84-66 Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS,)I'm going to try not to think too hard about this. The Dolphins are 4-0 SU and ATS at home this season, AND 3-0 ATS as double-digit favorites under Mike McDaniel. The Dolphins are also coming off of their bye week while the Raiders are on the road. Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following its bye week.If you take away the Dolphins' absurd 50-point victory against the earlier this year, Miami is still winning its home games by an average of 16.6 points.The pick:Dolphins -13Projected score:Dolphins 35-13Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, )Brandon Staley is . Why? Well, the defensive-minded head coach has the second-worst defense in the league statistically Dave Winfield Jersey . Last week's lo s to the Lions was the PERFECT example of a " game." The star quarterback threw four touchdowns, one interception, put up 38 total points and still lost. However, I'm taking the Chargers to rebound in Lambeau on Sunday. Herbert had his best performance in weeks vs. Detroit, which was good to see considering he was coming off of a terrible outing against the the week prior. His 323 pa sing yards last Sunday ranked second for him on the season, his four pa sing touchdowns marked a season-high and then the 38 points scored was a season-high for the Chargers as well. The Packers on the other hand have lost five out of their past six games -- the lone victory coming against the , who were starting a backup quarterback.Green Bay averages 19.9 points per game, while Los Angeles averages 26.6 points per game, which ranks seventh in the . Put simply, I think the Chargers can out-score the Packers. L.A. is 8- Rollie Fingers Jersey 1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. NFC opponents, and 9-4 ATS on the road since 2022. That's tied for the best road ATS record in that span.The pick:Chargers -3Projected score:Chargers 21-17Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox,) is returning to the lineup for Chicago. I believe he's the better quarterback compared to , but how will he fare gripping the ball with that injured thumb? Could he be rusty after mi sing four games? This is another case where I think the Lions can just straight-up outscore the Bears offense. Detroit has covered in 11 straight divisional games! That's tied for the longest streak by any since the merger. As for the Bears, they have covered the number just once in their last 12 divisional games. The last time these two teams played, Detroit won by 31 points.The pick:Lions -8Projected score: Lions 30-20Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS,)Two struggling AFC East teams face off in Buffalo this week. I'll take the home favorite with revenge on the mind. Remember, the Jets beat the Bills in overtime in the season opener. New York had a this week to voice frustrations internally, while the Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey after a gro s showing vs. Denver. Which squad is going to come together, and which one will further fall apart?The Bills offense has turnover i sues and needs to get the ball more often, but Buffalo is still top eight in the league in scoring. The Jets' scoring offense on the other hand ranks in the bottom three, and their i sues are more serious. The Jets have gone 11 quarters, 36 offensive drives and 186 plays from scrimmage without scoring a touchdown. Yikes.The 5-5 Bills Ozzie Smith Jersey are 4-1 in Buffalo this season, and are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last four games following back-to-back lo ses. This is not a small number, but I don't have any faith in the Jets. The pick:Bills -7Projected score:Bills 24-14Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, ) rematch be damned. The real story in Kansas City on Monday night is that two powerful families will meet for the first time. reports Taylor Swift and are introducing their families to each other at this game, so the Chiefs will win by a million. Kansas City, of course, is undefeated when Swift is in attendance.This is the ninth-ever rematch in what is the following season. The Super Bowl winner has won six of the eight matchups. The Chiefs are 4-0 SU and ATS at home this season. The Eagles, who are coming off of their bye, are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following the bye week.I'm not going to say the Eagles have been "bad" on the road, but they haven't been incredible either. They didn't cover the spread against the Commanders in their last road matchup, and lost to the Jets in the second-to Eric Hosmer Jersey -last game away from Philly. I'll take the Chiefs at home with the number this low. The pick:Chiefs -2.5Projected score:Chiefs 27-24Ravens (-3.5) 26-20 over Bengals (+1) 13-10 over 27-17 over (+10.5) 23-21 over (+5)Commanders (-9) 24-13 over 22-21 over (+7) (-11.5) 28-14 over Rams (+1) 24-21 over SeahawksBroncos (-2.5) 23-20 over | ||
| Posted: March 13, 2024 | Quote | ||
